Cannabis Sales Are Rising as Alcohol Declines: The April 2026 Data Story

A Tectonic Shift Keeps Accelerating

The story of cannabis rising as alcohol falls is no longer a niche industry talking point. It has become the dominant narrative in beverage and intoxicant markets heading into the second quarter of 2026. The April 9, 2026 edition of the Marijuana Moment newsletter crystallized what analysts have been seeing for months: cannabis sales are climbing in virtually every regulated market, while alcohol continues a historic decline that traditional drinks companies are scrambling to understand. The data behind this shift has moved from suggestive to undeniable, and the consequences for retailers, brands, and consumers are starting to reshape both industries.

For cannabis operators, the implications are enormous. A generational rotation away from alcohol toward cannabis is exactly the kind of secular tailwind that can carry a still-young industry through years of volatility. For alcohol incumbents, the same trend is a slow-motion crisis that is forcing uncomfortable strategic questions about acquisition, partnership, and product development. The April 2026 numbers give us the clearest snapshot yet of where this rotation stands.

What the Latest Canadian Data Shows

Canada has become a crucial reference point for the cannabis-versus-alcohol story because it has the longest continuous dataset of a fully legal adult-use market. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, sales of adult-use cannabis products in Canada rose 6.5 percent, while alcohol sales revenue declined by 1.6 percent. Those two numbers, together, tell a precise story: cannabis is growing, alcohol is shrinking, and the crossover is no longer a projection — it is already visible in official government receipts.

That Canadian data is significant for two reasons. First, it comes from a mature market where cannabis legalization has been in place long enough for consumer habits to settle. Early-stage legal markets tend to produce noisy numbers because so much demand is absorbing from the unregulated market. Canada is past that phase. Second, Canadian alcohol decline is tracking alongside broader global trends, suggesting the shift is not just a quirk of one country's tax structure. The Society for the Study of Addiction has linked the drop in alcohol sales partly to a denormalization of drinking and partly to a growing preference for cannabis.

The US Beverages Boom

In the United States, the most dramatic growth is happening in cannabis beverages — a category that barely existed as a mass-market phenomenon five years ago. US sales of cannabis beverages are now projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.9 percent through that year. By comparison, at-home alcoholic beverages are forecast to grow at just 2.4 percent annually through 2030. That is roughly a seven-fold growth differential, and it goes a long way toward explaining why traditional beverage conglomerates have started quietly building cannabis-adjacent portfolios.

The Gallup data is equally striking. In 2025, 54 percent of Americans reported using alcohol, down from 67 percent in 2022. That is a thirteen-point drop in three years, which would be a seismic shift in any consumer category. Meanwhile, in surveys of cannabis users, 62 percent said that when they have a choice between cannabis and alcohol, they choose cannabis. These numbers are no longer the wishful projections of cannabis industry marketers — they are being reported by some of the most respected polling firms in the country.

Why the Shift Is Happening Now

Several converging forces explain why cannabis is eating alcohol's lunch specifically in 2026. The first is the rise of low-dose cannabis beverages that slot cleanly into the social occasions alcohol used to own. A five-milligram THC seltzer behaves like a light beer in terms of onset, effect, and social context. Consumers who want the relaxation and sociability of a drink without the next-day cost are finding that cannabis beverages deliver the experience with a lighter hangover and fewer calories.

The second force is health-consciousness, especially among younger consumers. The sober-curious movement that took hold in the early 2020s created a cultural space where not drinking was no longer stigmatized, and cannabis has quietly filled some of the social void that non-alcoholic alternatives left behind. Survey data from cannabis beverage users shows that nearly two-thirds report reduced or fully stopped alcohol consumption after switching, and many report cutting their weekly drinks roughly in half.

The third force is simple availability. As more states launch adult-use programs and cannabis beverages move into mainstream retail in states like Minnesota and Massachusetts, the friction of substitution keeps dropping. When cannabis drinks are in the same refrigerator as beer at the corner store, the switch is no longer a lifestyle statement — it is just a purchase.

What It Means for the Cannabis Industry

For cannabis operators, the data reshapes strategic priorities in several ways. Beverage-forward brands are becoming some of the most valuable assets in the sector, and investment is flowing toward companies that can ride the beverage curve without the regulatory friction of dispensary-only distribution. Multi-state operators are being forced to rethink product mix, and many are expanding beverage lines aggressively. Meanwhile, hemp-derived THC beverages are capturing meaningful share in non-adult-use states, though the looming 2026 federal hemp cliff threatens to disrupt that channel later this year.

For alcohol companies, the picture is more uncomfortable. Some major beverage conglomerates have already made equity investments in cannabis companies, and industry observers expect the pace of those deals to pick up as the sales gap widens. Others are doubling down on non-alcoholic alternatives and wellness products to defend their core customers. What no serious strategist is doing anymore is dismissing cannabis as a passing trend.

Key Takeaways

• Canadian adult-use cannabis sales rose 6.5 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2025, while alcohol sales declined 1.6 percent.
• US cannabis beverages are projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2028, growing at 16.9 percent annually — roughly seven times the projected growth rate of at-home alcohol.
• Gallup data shows alcohol consumption in the US fell from 67 percent in 2022 to 54 percent in 2025.
• 62 percent of surveyed consumers say they prefer cannabis to alcohol when given a choice.
• The shift is being driven by low-dose beverages, the sober-curious movement, and growing cannabis beverage availability in mainstream retail.

Explore cannabis news, find dispensaries, and join the community at Budpedia.